The Braves stranglehold on the NL East division is almost over. There are numerous magic numbers floating around for the Mets right now:
1. Remove Braves from NL East contention = 2
2. Clinch NL East = 4
3. Clinch NL and home field through Wild Card and NL Championship series = 8

This past week I had some e-mail conversations with friends about who will start for the Mets during the playoffs. It was almost a consensus that Martinez, Glavine, and Hernandez are the top 3 pitchers on the staff. It was the fourth starter for the playoffs that seemed to get different opinions. I’m pushing to see Williams as the fourth starter. He’s been a solid pitcher during the past month (3 quality starts in his last 4 appearances since joining the Mets) and provides a second lefty starter in the rotation. That would allow the mets to go righty, lefty, righty, lefty during their postseason series. Add the fact that most teams have trouble against lefty pitchers (including the Mets who are 4-11 against lefty starters in the past 15 games where a lefty has started for the opposing team).

There was a vote to have Maine as the fourth starter. He’s also a solid option as he’s pitched a quality start in 3 of his past 5 starts. And he only gave up 2 runs in 5 innings during the other start.

Now, there’s also a vote to have Trachsel as the fourth starter. Arguments for Trachsel include his won-loss record (14-7) and a show of faith for a player with such a long tenure on the Mets. I’m having a lot of trouble with this philosophy, especially with his lousy outing today (4 runs in 2-2/3 innings). Trachsel is supporting a 5.17 ERA this season, which is fine for a 5th starter during the regular season, but does not bring any warm fuzzies during playoff time. Also, his won-loss record is a result of great run support when he pitches. That’s where the quality start stat comes into play. Trachsel has 2 quality starts in his last 5 starts. And, as I noted in a previous post, his quality start percentage is less the 50%.

I understand Maine and Williams don’t have a lot of big game experience, but neither does Trachsel. All he has is experience. Let’s just hope Randolph makes the right choice and leaves Trachsel as a long releiver or off the playoff roster.

Lets go Mets!